08.05 Propaganda Review

Kremlin Swipe: Ahead of the US election, the Kremlin is betting on TikTok, the popularity of which is rapidly growing in America, but experts believe that shutting down the social network would be a bad decision

TikTok could become the first social network to be banned in the US if it does not replace its Chinese owner with a local one. American politicians are concerned about both the rapidly growing popularity of the platform, which has increased by one and a half times over two years (especially among the youth), and the vulnerability of user data. It seems that the Kremlin has bet on this network in the current presidential campaign: propaganda accounts linked to it have started publishing five times more often than they did two years ago, while collecting four times more user reactions than on Telegram and X/Twitter, a Brookings Institution study has found. The topics and narratives they focus on leave no doubt that Moscow is sympathetic to Trump in the presidential race. However, experts are convinced that blocking the network would be a bad decision: it is necessary to preserve the advantages of an open society and learn to effectively counter populist narratives of post-truth, conspiracy and ‘whataboutism’, rather than hiding from their influence behind administrative bans.

American politicians have reason to be wary of TikTok as the elections approach. At the end of April, Congress approved a bill that requires the social network's owner, the Chinese company ByteDance, to sell it to an American owner, or else the app could be banned in the US. Congress justifies its actions with concerns for the security of users' personal data. However, the bill has become a subject of active discussion at a time when Russian propaganda has significantly intensified on the TikTok network, as shown by the research of Brookings Institution expert Valerie Wirtschafter. In recent years, TikTok has become the network with the fastest-growing audience, according to surveys conducted by the Pew Research Centre. The percentage of American adults who mentioned using it rose from 21% in 2021 to 33% in 2023, overtaking WhatsApp (29%), Snapchat (27%) and X/Twitter (22%). The youth audience on TikTok is particularly vulnerable to influence, with 62% of those surveyed aged 18-29 mentioning that they use the network.

Valerie Wirtschafter's research identified 70 TikTok accounts linked to Russian authorities, either listed on the Hamilton 2.0 Dashboard list of propaganda resources or actively interacting with those on the list. Since the beginning of 2024, 46 of these have posted regularly, with the three most active making an average of 10 or more posts per day. The average activity of a pro-Russian propaganda account on TikTok increased from zero in January 2022 to between two and three posts per day in 2023, and up to five in 2024. The audience of these accounts has also increased dramatically: while in 2022, all posts from accounts linked to Russian authorities on TikTok gathered around 3 million reactions per day (in the form of likes, actions, views, and comments), in 2023 it was about 6 million, and now this figure has risen to 13 million.

In absolute numbers, the activity of pro-Kremlin accounts is still highest on Telegram and X (formerly Twitter). For instance, in March 2024, propaganda resources posted on X nearly five times more frequently than on TikTok, and on Telegram nine times more often. However, the audience engagement rates on TikTok are significantly higher: an average post on this network garners about 100,000 user interactions, which is 3.5 times the figure for a post on Telegram and 20 times the figure for a single tweet. Even if views are excluded from the statistics and only likes, reposts, and comments are considered, a single publication on TikTok generates 13 times more response than one on the network X. Thus, the younger and more reactive users of the network create a much larger resonance for this content.

The Brookings Institution study links the intensification of Russian propaganda on TikTok to the upcoming US presidential election. Valerie Wirtshafter has compiled a list of key words and concepts related to American politics and, having checked all posts on pro-Kremlin accounts on TikTok, X and Telegram since the beginning of 2024, came to the conclusion that they are mentioned in only 3% of all posts, about 9000 out of 300,000. Meanwhile, on TikTok, 5% of posts were related to American politics, while on the network X, which has historically been most popular among journalists, politicians, and public figures, this was only 4%, and on Telegram it was about 1%. The average audience engagement with TikTok's propaganda channels' content dedicated to American politics is comparable to other content, but it is still on average 10 times higher than on the network X. During the period under review, 20 out of the 30 most popular posts on political topics were published on TikTok, and 10 on X. Additionally, out of the 30 most popular posts on TikTok dedicated to US politics, 22 were from pro-Kremlin Spanish-language accounts targeting audiences in Europe, Latin America, and the USA. An earlier Brookings Institution study (also involving Valerie Wirtschafter) showed that audiences in Latin America were the most heavily targeted by Kremlin narratives in the months following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. One of its most effective tools was RT en Español, which last year published almost 3000 posts on social media (more than seven per day).

In an interview with Tucker Carlson, Vladimir Putin claimed that the Kremlin was more interested in Biden's victory than Trump's, which, as usual, was untrue. The tone and narratives of political posts by pro-Kremlin accounts on TikTok leave no doubt as to which candidate Moscow prefers. These accounts frequently cite Carlson's interview with Putin, including the journalist's remarks that Americans misunderstand what is happening between Russia and Ukraine. They regularly post about illegal immigration in the US, discuss Biden's age and his public mishaps. At the same time, publications about Donald Trump focus on his sense of humour, talk about his attitude to NATO, and his shoe collection. The study notes that several posts on TikTok propaganda channels criticised the US electoral system and suggested that the 2020 US election, which was won by Joe Biden, was rigged.

However, the increasing activity of Russian propaganda on American TikTok does not mean that the Kremlin will be able to influence the outcome of the US presidential elections, Wirtschafter believes. Even during the 2016 US presidential election, an active Russian information campaign on Twitter did not significantly affect voter sentiments, according to an important study published in the journal Nature Communications. The increasing use of Russian network propaganda targeting the domestic agendas of Western countries and the extensive use of AI-generated content could lead to the spread of large volumes of credible-looking disinformation. The growth in reach of propaganda content on TikTok is evident. However, instead of banning TikTok, the Brookings Institution study suggests maximising its capabilities to analyse audience preferences to understand how Western narratives can effectively compete with Kremlin narratives.

The advantage of democracy and an open society lies in discussion and the search for rational arguments that should ultimately counter conspiracy, post-truth and ‘whataboutism,’ the authors of a recent report by the Alliance for Securing Democracy insist. The State Department has already taken steps in this direction, publishing a series of videos to counter Putin's statements with the truth about the war in Ukraine, they noted. Banning and administratively shielding users from such content does not increase, but rather decreases the audience's resistance to populist narratives, as well as the incentives for effective and meaningful debate with them.